156 lines
4.7 KiB
Python
156 lines
4.7 KiB
Python
"""Обёртка для построения общей квадратичной регрессии заказов от среднего числа показов."""
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from pathlib import Path
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from typing import Optional, Tuple
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import numpy as np
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import statsmodels.api as sm
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from sklearn.metrics import r2_score, roc_auc_score
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import best_model_and_plots as bmp
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# Константы из scatter-скрипта
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X_COL = bmp.X_COL
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Y_COL = "orders_amt_total"
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X_MAX = bmp.DEFAULT_X_MAX
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Y_MIN = bmp.DEFAULT_Y_MIN
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Y_MAX = bmp.DEFAULT_Y_MAX
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def fit_quadratic(
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cleaned: bmp.pd.DataFrame,
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trend_data: Optional[Tuple[np.ndarray, np.ndarray]],
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*,
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x_col: str = X_COL,
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y_col: str = Y_COL,
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x_max: float = X_MAX,
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) -> Tuple[Optional[sm.regression.linear_model.RegressionResultsWrapper], dict]:
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"""Фитит y ~ 1 + x + x^2. Если есть тренд, использует его как целевое для r2_trend."""
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df = cleaned[[x_col, y_col]].dropna()
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if len(df) < 3:
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return None, {}
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if trend_data is not None and trend_data[0] is not None:
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tx, ty = trend_data
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tx = np.asarray(tx)
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ty = np.asarray(ty)
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mask = (tx <= x_max) & ~np.isnan(ty)
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tx = tx[mask]
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ty = ty[mask]
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else:
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tx = ty = None
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x = df[x_col].to_numpy()
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y = df[y_col].to_numpy()
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X_design = sm.add_constant(np.column_stack([x, x**2]))
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model = sm.OLS(y, X_design).fit(cov_type="HC3")
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auc = np.nan
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binary = (y > 0).astype(int)
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if len(np.unique(binary)) > 1:
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auc = roc_auc_score(binary, model.predict(X_design))
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r2_trend = np.nan
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if tx is not None and len(tx) >= 3:
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X_trend = sm.add_constant(np.column_stack([tx, tx**2]))
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y_hat_trend = model.predict(X_trend)
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if np.nanvar(ty) > 0:
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r2_trend = r2_score(ty, y_hat_trend)
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metrics = {
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"auc": auc,
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"r2_trend": r2_trend,
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}
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return model, metrics
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def plot_overall_quad(
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x_max: float = X_MAX,
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y_min: float = Y_MIN,
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y_max: float = Y_MAX,
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savgol_window: int = bmp.DEFAULT_SAVGOL_WINDOW,
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) -> None:
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# Рисуем три облака (из best_model_and_plots) и добавляем поверх квадратичную кривую
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out_dir = bmp.BASE_OUT_DIR / Y_COL
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res = bmp.plot_clean_trend_scatter(
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bmp.load_client_level(bmp.DB_PATH),
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y_col=Y_COL,
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out_dir=out_dir,
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x_col=X_COL,
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x_max=x_max,
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scatter_color=bmp.DEFAULT_SCATTER_COLOR,
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point_size=bmp.DEFAULT_POINT_SIZE,
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alpha=bmp.DEFAULT_TREND_ALPHA,
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iqr_k=bmp.DEFAULT_IQR_K,
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q_low=bmp.DEFAULT_Q_LOW,
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q_high=bmp.DEFAULT_Q_HIGH,
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alpha_min=bmp.DEFAULT_ALPHA_MIN,
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alpha_max=bmp.DEFAULT_ALPHA_MAX,
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bins_x=bmp.DEFAULT_BINS_X,
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bins_y=bmp.DEFAULT_BINS_Y,
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y_min=y_min,
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y_max=y_max,
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trend_frac=bmp.DEFAULT_TREND_FRAC,
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trend_color=bmp.DEFAULT_TREND_COLOR,
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trend_linewidth=bmp.DEFAULT_TREND_LINEWIDTH,
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trend_method=bmp.DEFAULT_TREND_METHOD,
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savgol_window=savgol_window,
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return_components=True,
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)
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if res is None:
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print("Нет данных для построения графика")
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return
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fig, ax, cleaned, trend_data = res
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model, metrics = fit_quadratic(cleaned, trend_data, x_col=X_COL, y_col=Y_COL, x_max=x_max)
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if model is None:
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print("Недостаточно точек для квадратичной регрессии")
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fig.savefig(out_dir / "scatter_trend.png", dpi=150)
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bmp.plt.close(fig)
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return
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# Квадратичная линия поверх существующего тренда
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x_grid = np.linspace(0, x_max, 400)
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X_grid = sm.add_constant(np.column_stack([x_grid, x_grid**2]))
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y_grid = model.predict(X_grid)
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ax.plot(x_grid, y_grid, color="blue", linewidth=2.2, linestyle="--", label="Квадр. регрессия")
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ax.legend()
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params = model.params
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pvals = model.pvalues
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summary_lines = [
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f"R2_trend={metrics['r2_trend']:.3f}",
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f"AUC={metrics['auc']:.3f}",
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f"b1={params[1]:.3f} (p={pvals[1]:.3g})",
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f"b2={params[2]:.3f} (p={pvals[2]:.3g})",
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f"n={len(cleaned)}",
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]
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ax.text(
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0.02,
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0.95,
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"\n".join(summary_lines),
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transform=ax.transAxes,
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ha="left",
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va="top",
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fontsize=9,
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bbox=dict(boxstyle="round,pad=0.2", facecolor="white", alpha=0.65, edgecolor="gray"),
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)
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quad_path = out_dir / "scatter_trend_quad.png"
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fig.tight_layout()
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fig.savefig(quad_path, dpi=150)
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bmp.plt.close(fig)
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print(f"Saved {quad_path}")
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def main() -> None:
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plot_overall_quad()
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if __name__ == "__main__":
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main()
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